DASER, October 18, 2012

This was another interesting DASER. This month was part 2 of a discussion of the humans and their interactions with machines. Some people think we may be headed to a future as cyborgs -- beings that are part computer and part human.

Cyborgs may eventually come into existence along with a cyborg culture. I wonder, though, what such a culture will look like. Star Trek: The Next Generation included such a culture in their stories. They presented the Borg, though, as bad creatures who were enemies of contemporary humans, eager to take in new species and make them live in certain ways.

I've started making the point in public that we need more open minded, well rounded generalists in our society and we need to listen to them better. I will admit that I am one such person. That clearly influences my thinking -- along with the failures of specialists in some pretty basic ways. When doctors kill patients because they make bad mistakes when they are very sleep deprived or when engineers kill astronauts by making bad decisions when they are exhausted argues for more open people to be involved in such fields, influencing decisions in fundamental ways.

I wonder what reactions my comments will have.

Interesting Correlation

I've known for some time that Presidents Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter were both engineers. Jonathan Yardley of the Washington Post wrote an interesting review of Jimmy Carter's White House Diaries titled Engineer of his own defeat: Jimmy Carter's "White House Diary". He makes the interesting point that Carter was rigid and humorless. Engineers like to describe themselves as "serious" and "professional." Some like to add "hard working."

I've learned since that review appeared in 2010 that GE CEO Jack Welch earned a Ph.D. in chemical engineering in 1960. Thirty years after that this "professional" was discouraging the rising generation from careers in engineering by firing thousands of GE engineers.

Most recently I learned -- starting with a Facebook post -- that all of the leaders of the Soviet Union between Stalin and Gorbachev were also professional engineers. Hmm. Quite a few people view the Soviet Union as a disaster.

Then we have the investigation of the Columbia Space Shuttle Accident by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. That report is rather damning.

Today we have NASA Administrator Bolden saying in public that people should not criticize NASA. Apparently he doesn't understand the Challenger and Columbia investigations, to name just two.

What we have here are various versions of what those of us more familiar with human behavior would call authoritarian cultures behaving dysfunctionally. That's fairly normal, alas, with highly authoritarian cultures. Authority can help a society -- but only if it is kept with democratic limits.

I've started saying engineers can contribute in lots of healthy ways to humanity. It seems, though, that current engineers need supervision by people who are more well rounded and open. We'd send engineers home at reasonable times to get the rest that all humans need. That would prevent things like the Challenger launch decision.

I'm trying to keep this brief. Even this is longer than many posts I see on blogs I look at.

Really Changing

Good grief. I just noticed that, since posting about Changing Posting Habits back in December 2010, I have hardly posted at all in this blog. Guess I must really work at change -- at least on this blog. Marco has said most recently to me that I write well and he will help publicize my work. I'm also going to post links on Facebook. I think quite a bit about lots of things. Some people tell me I have much to contribute. It's time to work on that.

My Running Career

When I was in high school, I was not at all athletic. For some reason I was clumsier than most children and not as nearly as good at sports as the average child. I've joked about myself when telling people I am just getting to know "You know that kid in school who was the worst at sports?" I frequently get the reply "You were that kid!" Then I "correct" them by saying "I made the kid you knew look like an NFL superstar." People then chuckle.

In high school I knew I should try various extracurricular activities. Doing so would be a big help when applying for college. I did join the debate team. That was right down my alley. I did some other things as well. I was aware that I should at least try out for some sort of athletic team. I picked track -- running to be specific. Steinert High was big and growing. I was known as one of the smartest students in my class. When I ran a quarter mile, just about everyone ignored me. I do remember doing so in 90 seconds -- but that did not draw any attention. That was with no training at all. Coach Marchand, wanting to help out the nice, bright teenager, made me team manager. That got me an athletic credit for college. I enjoyed being team manager. It was something that was easy for me. I got to hang out with much more athletic friends.

In 1963 I entered Rutgers, majoring in physics. Once again I approached cross country (fall) and track team (spring) and asked if I could be team manager. They were happy to take me on in that volunteer position. I spent the next four years following the team around, learning about runners and running -- but not doing any myself. Coach Wallack was a really fine coach. He was also friendly to me as team manager. I developed a very high impression of people on the track team -- and as more than just good athletes.

I graduated from Rutgers in May of 1967. Three months later I was drafted into the Army. That made me very unhappy. A few interesting things happened my first week in the Army. I did really well on the IQ test. My 150+ score was the highest of anyone at Fort Dix, New Jersey. That probably saved my life. Then there were the physical fitness tests. You could get 100 points on each test. There were five tests. The first four involved some sort of coordinated movements. My scores fit my self image completely. I got two zeros, one 17 and one 18. I did say I was not much of an athlete as a teenager. Then came the mile run. I had never run one mile all at one time in my life. A little over six minutes got me 95 points. I was really surprised. Within a few weeks of basic training I was down to running miles in about 5:30. A Few Basic Training Stories has more about that part of my life. Basic training, in some ways, turned me into a bit of a rebel.

Over the next few years I started running outdoors when the weather was good. Some of that time I lived in Northern California, some in upstate New York, some in New Jersey. Between the positive impression I had developed of runners, especially at Rutgers, and now discovering some talents along those lines, I became a bit of a runner. I also enjoyed my runs. I thought they might be good for my health as well.

Then came 1974. I was doing yet another career transition. I was moving from being a grad student in physics to a grad student in social psychology. Yes, that is quite a switch. In the summer of 1974 my father was put into the hospital. Dad had had a crippling injury to his left leg when he was in junior high school. The older Pop got, the more sedentary he got, the heavier he got. He was at least 100 pounds overweight when he entered the hospital. The surgery he had seemed to go well. Mom and I were looking forward to having Dad at home soon. It was August. Two days before Dad was to be released from the hospital, a blood clot that had gone undetected because of Dad's weight broke loose and killed him. I still remember seeing Dad on his hospital bed. I phoned my Uncle Don. He was shocked. Mom missed Dad down to the depths of her soul. She missed him until the day she passed away -- over 34 years later.

In September I began my grad work in social psychology at Columbia. I also started two other things -- running and swimming on a six day a week schedule. Since this was New York City and I didn't own a car, I also did a good bit of walking. I finally lost my adolescent baby fat. I got down to 139 pounds.

When I moved back to New Jersey, I kept up the running and swimming. I kept it up even after I began work as a computer programmer for New Jersey. All that changed was my schedule.

During this time whenever I bought new shoes, I was told about some upcoming race and asked if I would sign up. I always said no -- that I only ran for health reasons.

In March 1990 I began work at Goddard Space Flight Center. They had a running club that, every April and October put on a two mile fun run followed a week later by a 10K race for serious runners. Since I ran about six miles a day, I couldn't say no to a group that told even nonrunners to come out for the two mile fun run. It turned out I was one of the fastest runners at Goddard. I made friends with fellow runners. I even organized the running team for the supercomputer center. I started doing races outside of Goddard with friends. Even in those races I routinely finished in the top 15%-20% of my age group. I felt really good about that. Discovering athletic talents in middle age changed my life in some ways very positively.

October 1992 was another Goddard 10K race. I didn't realize how fast I was compared with other 40+ runners. That month two faster runners than me were training for the Marine Corps Marathon. My time of 45:20 WON me the over 40 trophy. I was surprised -- and thrilled. That trophy still sits in my living room. That Christmas time when I sent out my cards, I included a note that told people about winning that race among other things.

In May 1993 my cousins organized a 50th anniversary party for my Uncle Don and Aunt Kay. Uncle Don taught health and phys ed in high school and was our high school's first athletic director. My Cousin Don played football in high school. They were clearly in the more athletic part of my family. At that party, Cousin Don told me he could not run a 10K that fast -- and that he had completed four marathons. He told me I had at least one in me.

Over the next few years I kept up my running activities. I started to find out what I would need to do to train for a marathon. It seemed my normal six mile a day running was almost enough. The only thing I needed to do besides that was every other week do an increasingly long run. In the summer of 1996 I did a 9 mile run, a 12 mile run, a 15 mile run, a 18 mile run and finally one over 20 miles. I did all these runs in one of my favorite parks -- Greenbelt National. After the 20 mile run, I decided I was ready for a marathon. Back in 1996 it was much easier to enter the Marine Corps Marathon. I signed up about a month before.

Then came the day of the marathon. I was well rested. I ate appropriately. I drove to the start quite early. I began my marathon slowly. I still remember some things from that run. Around mile 13 some people from the National Space Society saw me and shouted "It's Chuck Divine!" They then began cheering me on. At mile 17 I saw a physically attractive woman wearing a White House Hash House Harrier T shirt with the slogan on it saying "The Drinking Club With a Running Problem." The only reason I didn't crack up laughing was because it was only mile 17. I reached mile 19 in about 3 hours. I realized I had only 7 miles to go -- and over 3 hours to do it. I started mixing running and walking. I reached Iwo Jima Hill just short of 5 hours. On that hill I saw one man down. The Marine Corps was taking good care of him. I crossed the finish line. I was thrilled to do so. That evening Mom phoned. She wanted to know how I did. I told her I finished. She was happy for me. She also told me to look at the cover of Parade that day. On the cover I saw photographs of people who had done something remarkable. One was of a 81 year old man who had just finished his 20th marathon. He began at age 61.

After the marathon I fell back into my usual running pattern. But, now, I had a plaque with my photograph and name on it to show the world that I had finished a marathon. I'm still proud of that accomplishment.

Remember my comment about the Hash House Harriers? In June 1998 I did the Race for the Cure with some friends. Actually I should say ahead of my friends. That race was only 5K. I was waiting around the finish area when I spotted a couple wearing hash T shirts. I walked up to them and introduced myself.. Next thing I knew I had a sheet of paper with a telephone number on it to find out about future runs. That summer I took up hashing for fun and games. I am glad that I did. I still occasionally show up for a hash run.

Some years ago I got the idea of writing to Coach Wallack and telling him about my running career and the role he played in it. A few days later he phoned me. He told me my letter had moved him to tears. He was happy to have played such an important role in my life.

I've written way too much. I'm up to 1800 words. Sigh. Short posts don't seem to be my thing.

President Obama's Speech

I made several notes during tonight's speech. Don't be surprised if I make mistakes. I won't even claim to be Superman. I even have a few quick reactions. Good grief, this is real time blogging. Don't be surprised if I have second, third, even fourth thoughts, especially if I must go out and fight Daleks....

Obama began his speech with some platitudes. Americans used to give their fair share of work and contributions (e.g., taxes, etc.) and get their fair share of rewards. Anybody could make it in America. For some decades now that has changed. That compact has been broken. (Note: Quite a few bright people on the left and right have said similar things. I can agree with those comments.)

Obama then went on to praise small business. He noted they are the ones who create the most jobs. There is, again, significant evidence to support that claim. He advocated cutting taxes on them.

My next note is about Obama's comments on infrastructure. He compares us -- unfavorably -- with China. I will note they are far behind us and have much catching up to do. Some people think they will not be able to, especially given population patterns. He praised private construction companies, saying they will be the ones to do the work rebuilding our infrastructure. He mentions schools as needing rehabilitation. I wonder what he thinks of the people who are starting to pursue "unschooling" as a better way of learning.

Obama condemned earmarks, boondoggles and bridges to nowhere.

Obama cited bipartisan support for measures such as he is proposing in the past. I will note at this time that Speaker Boehner is not smiling, but that VP Biden is.

Obama next addressed financials. He said that debt must be stabilized in the long run. He also noted that Medicare must be reformed to strengthen it. I wonder what analysis has been done on the concept that large amounts of medical spending is useless. Far to much is spent on a person's last few months of life. When Mom had some surgery back in the 1980s, she came home and lived quite healthily and independently for nearly two decades.

Obama then mentions the low taxes on the very rich -- and uses Warren Buffet's observation that his tax rate is lower than his secretary's. Increasing numbers of people are mentioning how the very rich are making out really well at the expense of the middle class. Even some conservatives are calling it a kind of class warfare. On a similar note, he said that the tax code should not favor the best connected but those who serve the country. Again, an interesting variety of people are saying similar things, albeit in different ways.

Obama then commented that we need to out build, out educate, and out innovate all other countries as we have done in the past..

He addressed the outdated patent process. He said it must be easier for individuals and companies to get patent protection for their work.

Obama used the phrase "Made in America" to point to what he and others want to be the future of our country. Even Boehner applauded that comment. Obama said the next generation of manufacturing must take root in America. He mentioned briefly the role that scientists and engineers will take in this work.

My last note has Obama saying it's time to "cut most government spending and cut most government growth." This is clearly reaching out to Republicans.

The talk ended at 7:41 by my watch. After the speech network news switched to reports of a new terror threat that could coincide with 9/11.

That's the end of my quick notes. If it isn't up to my usual writings, please understand. I haven't done this kind of thing much.

Metro Washington Mensa in the Summer

This is what I wrote for Metro Washington Mensa's newsletter for September. I am posting everything I now write for that publication here as well.

The column follows as it appeared.

I've had an interesting month in Metro Washington Mensa. Between Mensa events and events that I invited our members to, quite a bit has happened of note.

Possibly the most Mensa oriented weekend was the last weekend in July. There was quite a bit on our calendar. I began that weekend by attending, once again, Herb Guggenheim's Salon at La Madeleine. This was, as usual, an occasion for many fascinating conversations on a variety of topics. Herb's practice of having everyone write down a question for discussion helps not only attract thoughtful members, but also sparks a variety of discussions. Even before the “formal” discussion begins, we talk about all sorts of things ranging from culture to politics to management at companies where we have worked. Or, perhaps, I should say mismanagement. Those of us in tech fields are particularly well acquainted with poor management. I've even given talks on the subject at Regional Gatherings, focusing on the mess at NASA. Two, given at Snowball in 2003 and 2004, about the Columbia accident helped set my current course in life. That Friday I do remember, among other things, I remember seeing Stefan and hearing Herb's wife Leslie briefly mention Veterans Administration health care. Since I am a veteran, I took especial note of that. I'm trying to follow up her comments now.

On Saturday I awoke early enough – with the weather pleasant enough – to head out for a six mile run. How many of you are runners – or even get much physical exercise? While our minds are good, we also need to take of our bodies. I look forward to living as long as Mom – who passed on at 93 – and Uncle Don – who made it to 92. Keeping physically active also helps keep one's mind sharp. When I am running alone, I also think about the day ahead – and more. After the run, I had a good breakfast, read some e-mail and got ready to head out.

The big event on Saturday was Dave and Liz Remine's Corn Boil out in Virginia. I first got to know Liz and Dave when I joined Mensa up in New Jersey three decades ago. I remember enjoyable parties at their home. I can also remember the two of them coming to dinner parties I began organizing at local restaurants. My criteria for choosing those restaurants was fairly simple. They had to be good restaurants – and they could not be part of a major chain. Good Time Charlie's qualified. TGIF didn't. One very memorable evening started at a restaurant. We all then then proceeded to see the film Starman at a local theater. I won't discuss this evening more in this column. Just ask me about it the next time we see each other at an event. You will be amused. You will also learn a bit about one incident that pushed my politics in a libertarian direction.

I ran into quite a few interesting people at the Corn Boil. Besides Liz and Dave, there were local leaders such as much of the ExComm, Heather Poirier, her husband, and two people with whom I have another connection – the Hash House Harriers. Possibly the most interesting conversation I had at the Corn Boil, though, was with the people from Roanoke. We talked about photography a bit. They encouraged me to come down to Roanoke and do some serious photography there. I think I will in the not too distant future. I did some photography at the Corn Boil. You can see the results on Flickr at http://www.flickr.com/photos/27233112@N05/sets/72157627319392996/.

That evening I returned to Maryland. I would have liked to attend Herb and Leslie's Saturday evening party, especially since they told us it would be going on into the wee hours of Sunday, but I do need my sleep – and Sunday morning I had another special event to attend.

Sunday morning into afternoon was the annual Fourth of July Crab Feast at St. Mark's. Fourth of July? You need a sense of humor. The service begins with members of the College of Crustaceans processing in, dressed in some Crab outfits and acting rather silly. You can see my photos of this event on Flickr at http://www.flickr.com/photos/27233112@N05/sets/72157627332865134/. People at St. Mark's really enjoy my photography. They are now calling me the church photographer. Now you know why I had to be well rested for that event. People at St. Mark's are also quite intelligent. During one recent conversation, Louise said to me “My IQ is only 147. Charlie's (her husband) is over 160.” They are also warm, friendly people. I hope MWMers and my friends at St. Mark's get to know one another better. I think it will be better for all.

Sunday concluded with another fine party at Alex Belinfante's. I know I miss Keren – but not nearly as much as Alex does. Besides the usual attendees (Alex, Jared Levine, Bruce Ford, more), Alex invited friends from other circles, especially artistic ones. I did some photography of this event as well. You can find my photos on Flickr at .

The first weekend in August I tried to bring together friends from a variety of groups. On Friday evening I put the Dupont Circle galleries First Friday open houses into our calendar. I also got Beltway Bob – a Hash House Harriers local Friday night Happy Hour tradition – to meet at The Big Hunt on Connecticut just south of Dupont Circle. I mentioned the Beltway Bob Happy Hour on littlem. I also plugged both events at St. Mark's. A number of hashers came to The Big Hunt and had an enjoyable time. Alas, I got a poor response from both MWM and St. Mark's. One MWM member did try to reach me on my cell phone, but I didn't hear it ringing. It got loud some of the time at both The Big Hunt and the trip around the galleries. I think I will try this again in November. Perhaps the fall will be better for this kind of thing.

We also have a new SIG. Our newsletter editor Colby Hostetler – who is doing a fine job – has added a SIG she has named the Guest Events for M's. These events are designed to bring together Ms and speakers on the hot topics of the day. See her announcement for more information.

That's enough for now. I definitely plan on attending Dave Cahn's party this month as well as some other events. I look forward to seeing many of you soon.

The End of the Space Age?

This started life as a column for the local Mensa newsletter. I happen to be Member at Large for Metro Washington Mensa. Our group covers Washington, DC, the inner suburbs of Maryland and Virginia, but part of the group extends out to West Virginia. Believe it or not, you can reach West Virginia in a few hours of driving. OK, maybe not at rush hour. This column might have some interest for people even in other parts of the world. This column is a response to the leader The end of the Space Age and the articles Into the Sunset and Spooks in orbit.

Here's the column -- unedited.

As I write this column, the space shuttle Atlantis is on not just its final voyage, but the final voyage of any space shuttle. The Economist magazine cover for July 2nd-8th, 2011, has on it a photograph of a shuttle orbiting Earth with the title “The end of the Space Age” on said cover. The Economist makes several interesting points in that issue. Launching humans into space is expensive – and has few benefits, if any. Robots can do the work for such things as communications satellites, weather satellites and exploration of both other planets as well as the rest of the universe.

The Economist points out that human space flight was a consequence of the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States. Americans got really interested when the Soviet Union launched the first satellite in October 1957. In 1961 John F. Kennedy set a goal of landing Americans on the Moon before the decade was out. That goal was met in 1969 with the landing of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the Moon on July 20th. How many of you remember that day? I watched them walk on the Moon on a Sunday afternoon into evening while I was living in Palo Alto, California. We were riveted to the TV screen. Apollo 12 lasted from November 14 through November 24th. By that time I had moved to Poughkeepsie, New York and was working as a physicist at IBM. I don't remember Apollo 12. Apollo 13 was the aborted Apollo mission. It lasted from April 11, 1970 through April 17, 1970. My strongest memory of that mission is the film “Apollo 13.” The last Apollo mission happened in December 1972. I don't remember that mission at all. That was my last semester of full time graduate work in physics. I was getting fed up with, I thought, physics. It turned out to be late 20th century academia. I discovered that when I was doing grad work in social psychology in the 1970s.

What got me interested in space again? I read Gerard K. O'Neill's book “The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space” in 1977. I was fascinated by the idea that humans could be living in space colonies within our lifetimes. I thought I could be one of those humans. I joined a group called the L5 Society which was advocating such colonies. Why would humans want to build such colonies? One idea which had been proposed in the 1960s was to build giant solar power stations in Earth orbit to supply power to the entire Earth cheaply and cleanly. L5's slogan was “L5 by 95.” I did not know at the time how hard that would be. I learned about the difficulties in the 1980s. Still, though, by this time I was clearly committed to a future where humans lived and worked in space in large numbers for the benefit of all of humanity – at least those of us in free, technologically advanced societies.

What of the future? The two shuttle disasters revealed an agency afflicted with major problems. The loss of Columbia in 2003 resulted in an investigation that showed an agency that could not lead anymore. In fact, the agency had become – and had been for a long time – hostile in many ways to new ideas. Not Invented Here had become an acronym – NIH.

We've discovered other problems. First off, humans cannot live in space – at least at the present time. We and the Russians have sent several hundred humans into space for periods that have lasted several months and, in a few cases, more than a year. All of the people who have spent even that short a time in space have come back much weaker, needing years to get back to the normal human strength. These are people who are in excellent condition for most humans. Anyone who takes a multiyear trip to Mars will, most likely, come back in even worse shape. Living there would be impossible.

We can also look at Antarctica. Humans first discovered Antarctica in 1820. 1820? It took that long for humans to sail that far south. The continent was ignored for the rest of the century. Humans first paid real attention to Antarctica when Scott and Amundsen raced for the South Pole a century ago. Amundsen's team won, reaching the pole on December 14, 1911. Scott's team reached the pole, but died on the return. This could be viewed as the early 20th Century equivalent of the race to the Moon. It cost much less than Apollo. Humans did not really make any strong efforts regarding Antarctica until after World War II. We now have some bases there for research and some adventurous tourists.

The Space Age, then, must be finished – as finished as the Roman Empire. Perhaps it is. Perhaps we will only use the “inner space” of communications satellites, weather satellites and other things connected to the real well being of humans. We may send off a few robots to explore elsewhere and a few orbital observatories to look at the rest of the universe. “Star Trek”, “2001: A Space Odyssey” and more will be viewed as 20th Century myths. Awhile back on Facebook I commented “If you had told a resident of Haight Ashbury in 1969 that none of the space exploration stuff in “2001: A Space Odyssey” would have come true 40 years later but that General Motors would be in bankruptcy and that Lincoln would be selling luxury, high end pickup trucks, they would have told you to cut back on the LSD and go talk to the nice people down at the Free Clinic.” Karen Caron and Jody Carlson liked that quote. A couple of space cadets didn't even get it.

I will say, though, that the First Space Age is finished. With real reform, we may be able to build a real future for humans in space. Open democratic reform, though, is needed. Open democratic societies do a much better job of really advancing human civilization. Such societies are open to new ideas and new people. They are better at creating real progress. They are better at solving problems over the long haul. They respect their people and try to make lives better for all. We all know they fail at this all too often, Still, though, they are the best kinds of societies that humanity has created so far. Winston Churchill once said “It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.” Those solar power satellites are looking increasingly possible. People are struggling for real reform in tech fields. I know – I am one of them.

I will close by comparing three years: 1621, 2011 and 2525. Those of you old enough to remember might remember the song “In the year 2525” back in the 1960s. I have it on a CD. It was look at a future of fantastic myths -- and possibly dark times. It was very different from what we have today. What about 1621? That was the year John Donne became dean of St. Paul's Cathedral in London, England. A few years back I read the book “A Cambridge Companion to John Donne.” Why? I was curious about a man I am descended from. I was stunned about how similar I was to this great man who lived four centuries ago. I'm not is his league, but I was surprised about how we thought and felt about things. Now, let's compare our times. If I could take a time machine back to 1621 and tell Donne about a typical day for me, he would be thoroughly surprised. Listen to stereo? I could even take a small one back to show him. Drive a car? Live in an air conditioned house? Communicate via the Internet? He would learn much about the great accomplishments of humans in the past four centuries – and be surprised at how similar today's humans were to those of the 17th Century. What will 2525 be like? As far ahead of ours as ours is from 1621? Or more like 1621? Our descendants will know.

That's enough for now. Feel free to bring this up at any Mensa event or elsewhere. I try to be open to everyone.